Brexit Uncertainty and Trade Disintegration
研究了英国脱欧公投后贸易政策不确定性对欧盟与英国双边出口的影响，发现脱欧概率上升使出口值下降11%至20%，且影响随产品关税风险增大。
Abstract We estimate the uncertainty effects of preferential trade disagreements. Increases in the probability of Britain’s exit from the European Union (Brexit) reduce bilateral export values and trade participation. These effects are increasing in trade policy risk across products. We estimate that at the average disagreement tariff of 4.5% the increase in the probability of Brexit after the referendum lowered EU–UK bilateral export values between 11–20%. Neither the EU or UK exporters believed a trade war was likely.