Missing Novelty in Drug Development
研究发现制药公司因风险规避而减少对激进创新的投入，通过化学相似性衡量药物新颖性，揭示新颖药物获批概率低但专利价值高，且企业净资产增加会促进新颖药物开发。
Abstract We provide evidence that risk aversion leads pharmaceutical firms to underinvest in radical innovation. We introduce a new measure of drug novelty based on chemical similarity and show that firms face a risk-reward trade-off: novel drug candidates are less likely to obtain FDA approval but are based on more valuable patents. Consistent with a simple model of costly external finance, we show that a positive shock to firms’ net worth leads firms to develop more novel drugs. This suggests that even large firms may behave as though they are risk averse, reducing their willingness to investment in potentially valuable radical innovation.