Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends
研究了美国生产部门的资本积累和网络结构如何放大部门生产率与劳动趋势对GDP增长的影响，发现部门因素解释了约四分之三的长期GDP增长变化，战后趋势增长率下降近3个百分点，建筑业和耐用品部门贡献显著。
We describe how capital accumulation and the network structure of US production interact to amplify the effects of sectoral trend growth rates in total factor productivity and labor on trend GDP (gross domestic product) growth. We derive expressions that conveniently summarize this long-run amplification effect by way of sectoral multipliers. We estimate that sector-specific factors have historically accounted for approximately three-fourths of long-run changes in GDP growth. Trend GDP growth fell by nearly 3 percentage points over the postwar period, with especially significant contributions from the Construction sector in 1950–80 and the Durable Goods sector in 2000–2018. No sector has contributed any steady significant increase to the trend growth rate of GDP in the past 70 years.