宏观经济学真的有问题吗?

Is something really wrong with macroeconomics?

Oxford Review of Economic Policy · 2017
被引 0
人大 A-ABS 2

中文导读

回应了对宏观经济学的常见批评,指出当前研究并非僵化的DSGE建模,而是充满活力;货币政策受益于宏观建议,但预测表现不佳;问题在于模型教学讨论不足和研究生教材投入太少。

Abstract

Many critiques of the state of macroeconomics are off target. Current macroeconomic research is not mindless DSGE modelling filled with ridiculous assumptions and oblivious of data. Rather, young macroeconomists are doing vibrant, varied, and exciting work, getting jobs, and being published. Macroeconomics informs economic policy only moderately, and not more than nor differently from other fields in economics. Monetary policy has benefitted significantly from this advice in keeping inflation under control and preventing a new Great Depression. Macroeconomic forecasts perform poorly in absolute terms and, given the size of the challenge, probably always will. But relative to the level of aggregation, the time horizon, and the amount of funding, macroeconomic forecasts are not so obviously worse than those in other fields. What is most wrong with macroeconomics today is perhaps that there is too little discussion of which models to teach and too little investment in graduate-level textbooks.

宏观经济批评DSGE模型货币政策经济预测