Why Is Canada's Price Level So Predictable?
研究发现加拿大作为通胀目标国，其价格水平几乎未偏离2%目标路径，且暂时偏离后迅速回归，贝叶斯估计表明这不太可能是相互抵消的冲击所致，更可能是通胀预期和利率设定隐含了价格水平路径目标。
This paper draws attention to the fact that the price level in Canada—which is an inflation targeter—has strayed little from the path it would have taken had inflation never wandered off the 2% target since its introduction and has tended to revert to that path after temporary deviations. Econometric analysis using Bayesian estimation suggests that a low probability can be assigned to explaining this behavior by mutually offsetting shocks. More plausible is the assumption that inflation expectations and interest rates are determined in a way that is consistent with an element of price‐level‐path targeting.