Bad Beta, Good Beta
提出一个两贝塔模型,将股票贝塔分解为现金流贝塔和折现率贝塔,发现价值股和小盘股的现金流贝塔更高,从而解释了它们的较高平均收益。
This paper explains the size and value “anomalies” in stock returns using an economically motivated two-beta model. We break the beta of a stock with the market portfolio into two components, one reflecting news about the market's future cash flows and one reflecting news about the market's discount rates. Intertemporal asset pricing theory suggests that the former should have a higher price of risk; thus beta, like cholesterol, comes in “bad” and “good” varieties. Empirically, we find that value stocks and small stocks have considerably higher cash-flow betas than growth stocks and large stocks, and this can explain their higher average returns. The poor performance of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) since 1963 is explained by the fact that growth stocks and high-past-beta stocks have predominantly good betas with low risk prices.