Can We Prove a Bank Guilty of Creating Systemic Risk? A Minority Report
评估两种主流系统性风险模型，发现仅估算误差就足以妨碍可靠识别最具系统性风险的银行，因此认为开发足够可靠的“风险测量仪”以支撑宏观审慎政策是巨大挑战。
Because increasing a bank's capital requirement to improve the stability of the financial system imposes costs upon the bank, a regulator should ideally be able to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that banks classified as systemically risky really do create systemic risk before subjecting them to this capital punishment. Evaluating the performance of two leading systemic risk models, we show that estimation error alone prevents the reliable identification of the most systemically risky banks. We conclude that it will be a considerable challenge to develop a riskometer that is sound and reliable enough to provide an adequate foundation for macroprudential policy.