A More Timely and Useful Index of Leading Indicators
提出一种新方法改进美国先行指标指数，使其更及时，并在预测实际GDP、同步指标指数和工业生产等经济活动变化上显著优于旧版，为预测商业周期转折点和月度经济变化提供准确的前瞻信息。
Effectively predicting cyclical movements in the economy is a major challenge. The U.S. leading index (LI) has long been used to analyze and predict economic fluctuations. We describe and test a new procedure for making the LI more timely. The new LI significantly outperforms its older counterpart. It offers substantial gains in real-time, out-of-sample forecasts of changes in aggregate economic activity (real GDP, the index of coincident indicators, and industrial production) and provides timely and accurate ex ante information for predicting not only business cycle turning points, but also monthly changes in the economy.