Escaping Nash Inflation
研究在折现最小二乘学习下，经济如何从自我确认均衡中逃离，并导致政府发现过强的自然率假说，从而反复出现接近拉姆齐通胀率的结果。
. Mean dynamics describe the convergence to self-confirming equilibria of selfreferential systems under discounted least squares learning. Escape dynamics recurrently propel away from a self-confirming equilibrium. In a model with a unique self-confirming equilibrium, the escape dynamics make the government discover too strong a version of the natural rate hypothesis. The escape route dynamics cause recurrent outcomes close to the Ramsey (commitment) inflation rate in a model with an adaptive government. Key Words: Self-confirming equilibrium, mean dynamics, escape route, large deviation, natural rate of unemployment, adaptation, experimentation trap. `If an unlikely event occurs, it is very likely to occur in the most likely way.' Michael Harrison 1. INTRODUCTION Building on work by Sims (1988) and Chung (1990), Sargent (1999) showed how a government adaptively fitting an approximating Phillips curve model recurrently sets inflation near the optimal time-inconsistent ouctome, althoug...