Evaluating the Efficiency of the FOMC's New Economic Projections
检验2007年以来FOMC经济预测的修订是否可预测，发现通胀预测效率可接受，但失业率等实际变量预测因修订自相关而效率不足。
Since 2007, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policymakers have been publishing detailed numerical projections of macroeconomic series over the next 3 years. By testing whether the revisions to these projections are unpredictable, I find that FOMC's efficiency is generally accepted for inflation but often rejected for real economic variables, notably for the unemployment rate. The rejection is due to the strong autocorrelation of revisions, which may reflect information rigidity of FOMC's unemployment projections. The joint efficiency of the entire projection is accepted in most cases.