Learning to Wait: A Laboratory Investigation
实验让受试者决定何时投入固定成本以抓住一个价值随机波动的投资机会，发现低等待溢价组接近最优，高溢价组虽低于最优但顺序符合预测。
Human subjects decide when to sink a fixed cost <it>C</it> to seize an irreversible investment opportunity whose value <it>V</it> is governed by Brownian motion. The optimal policy is to invest when <it>V</it> first crosses a threshold <it>V</it>* = (1 + <it>w</it>*)<it>C</it>, where the wait option premium <it>w</it>* depends on drift, volatility, and expiration hazard parameters. Subjects in the Low <it>w</it>* treatment on average invest at values quite close to optimum. Subjects in the two Medium and the High <it>w</it>* treatments invested at values below optimum, but with the predicted ordering, and values approached the optimum by the last block of 20 periods.