Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach
提出贝叶斯经典估计平均（BACE）方法，用于检验跨国经济增长回归中解释变量的稳健性，发现18个变量与长期增长显著相关。
This paper examines the robustness of explanatory variables in cross-country economic growth regressions. It introduces and employs a novel approach, Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE), which constructs estimates by averaging OLS coefficients across models. The weights given to individual regressions have a Bayesian justification similar to the Schwarz model selection criterion. Of 67 explanatory variables we find 18 to be significantly and robustly partially correlated with long-term growth and another three variables to be marginally related. The strongest evidence is for the relative price of investment, primary school enrollment, and the initial level of real GDP per capita.