Why Does Fast Loan Growth Predict Poor Performance for Banks?
研究发现，1973年至2014年间，美国银行贷款增长最快的银行在随后三年股票表现显著差于增长最慢的银行，且资产回报率更低、贷款损失准备金增加，这不能用并购活动解释，而是因为银行、分析师和投资者对高增长期贷款风险过度乐观。
From 1973 to 2014, the common stock of U.S. banks with loan growth in the top quartile of banks over a three-year period significantly underperformed the common stock of banks with loan growth in the bottom quartile over the next three years. After the period of high growth, these banks have a lower return on assets and increase their loan loss reserves. The poorer performance of fast-growing banks is not explained by merger activity. The evidence is consistent with banks, analysts, and investors being overoptimistic about the risk of loans extended during bank-level periods of high loan growth. Received September 14, 2016; editorial decision May 28, 2017 by Editor Itay Goldstein.