A Pari-Mutuel-Like Mechanism for Information Aggregation: A Field Test inside Intel
在英特尔公司内部长期测试了一种基于同注分彩机制的信息聚合工具，能有效收集分散的主观信息并形成概率分布，其销售预测比英特尔内部预测更准确。
A new information aggregation mechanism (IAM), developed via laboratory experimental methods, is implemented inside Intel Corporation in a long-running field test. The IAM, incorporating features of pari-mutuel betting, is uniquely designed to collect and quantize as probability distributions dispersed, subjectively held information. IAM participants’ incentives support timely information revelation and the emergence of consensus beliefs over future outcomes. Empirical tests demonstrate the robustness of experimental results and the IAM’s practical usefulness in addressing real-world problems. The IAM’s predictive distributions forecasting sales are very accurate, especially for short horizons and direct sales channels, often proving more accurate than Intel’s internal forecast.