Hotelling under Pressure
研究发现得克萨斯州现有油井的产量对油价不敏感，而钻井活动和成本则反应强烈。为此，将霍特林模型重新表述为钻井问题，解释产量约束为何通常有效，并合理化区域产量峰值及价格、钻井和产量对供需冲击的反应模式。
We show that oil production from existing wells in Texas does not respond to oil prices, while drilling activity and costs respond strongly. To explain these facts, we reformulate Hotelling’s classic model of exhaustible resource extraction as a drilling problem: firms choose when to drill, but production from existing wells is constrained by reservoir pressure, which decays as oil is extracted. The model implies a modified Hotelling rule for drilling revenues net of costs, explains why the production constraint typically binds, and rationalizes regional production peaks and observed patterns of prices, drilling, and production following demand and supply shocks.