Excessive Dollar Debt: Financial Development and Underinsurance
提出新兴市场金融发展不足是导致其美元外债占比高的关键因素，国内代理人因金融约束低估汇率贬值保险，从而选择过多美元债务，且金融发展不足抑制外国贷款人进入，加剧保险不足问题。
ABSTRACT We propose that the limited financial development of emerging markets is a significant factor behind the large share of dollar‐denominated external debt present in these markets. We show that when financial constraints affect borrowing and lending between domestic agents, agents undervalue insuring against an exchange rate depreciation. Since more of this insurance is present when external debt is denominated in domestic currency rather than in dollars, this result implies that domestic agents choose excessive dollar debt. We also show that limited financial development reduces the incentives for foreign lenders to enter emerging markets. The retarded entry reinforces the underinsurance problem.