Business Cycle Phases in U.S. States
用状态转换模型分析美国各州的同步经济指数，发现各州在衰退和扩张阶段的增长率差异很大，且阶段转换时间不同，与全国周期不完全同步。
The U.S. aggregate business cycle is often characterized as a series of distinct recession and expansion phases. We apply a regime-switching model to state-level coincident indices to characterize state business cycles in this way. We find that states differ a great deal in the levels of growth that they experience in the two phases: Recession growth rates are related to industry mix, whereas expansion growth rates are related to education and age composition. Further, states differ significantly in the timing of switches between regimes, indicating large differences in the extent to which state business cycle phases are in concord with those of the aggregate economy. © 2005 President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.