Market Timing and Managerial Portfolio Decisions
发现高管对公司价值的看法与市场估值存在系统性偏差，认为错误定价影响其决策；内部人交易模式显示低估值公司被管理者视为低估，且私人投资组合决策与公司资本结构变化相关，表明管理者在私人交易和公司层面都试图把握市场时机。
ABSTRACT This paper provides evidence that top managers have contrarian views on firm value. Managers' perceptions of fundamental value diverge systematically from market valuations, and perceived mispricing seems an important determinant of managers' decision making. Insider trading patterns shows that low valuation firms are regarded as undervalued by their own managers relative to high valuation firms. This finding is robust to controlling for noninformation motivated trading. Further evidence links managers' private portfolio decisions to changes in corporate capital structures, suggesting that managers try to actively time the market both in their private trades and in firm‐level decisions.