Climate Change, Mortality, and Adaptation: Evidence from Annual Fluctuations in Weather in the US
利用美国天气的年度随机波动，研究了日温度与年死亡率及居民能源消费的非线性关系，发现极端温度会显著增加死亡率和能源消费，预测本世纪末气候变化将导致死亡率上升3%、能源消费上升11%。
Using random year-to-year variation in temperature, we document the relationship between daily temperatures and annual mortality rates and daily temperatures and annual residential energy consumption. Both relationships exhibit nonlinearities, with significant increases at the extremes of the temperature distribution. The application of these results to “business as usual” climate predictions indicates that by the end of the century climate change will lead to increases of 3 percent in the age-adjusted mortality rate and 11 percent in annual residential energy consumption. These estimates likely overstate the long-run costs, because climate change will unfold gradually allowing individuals to engage in a wider set of adaptations.