Thinking about Prices versus Thinking about Returns in Financial Markets
通过三项实验发现，投资者在预测回报时比预测价格时预期更高，而看回报图表比看价格图表时预期更低，认知反思能力能缓解这种格式影响。
ABSTRACT Prices and returns are alternative ways to present information and to elicit expectations in financial markets. But do investors think of prices and returns in the same way? We present three studies in which subjects differ in the level of expertise, amount of information, and type of incentive scheme. The results are consistent across all studies: asking subjects to forecast returns as opposed to prices results in higher expectations, whereas showing them return charts rather than price charts results in lower expectations. Experience is not a useful remedy but cognitive reflection mitigates the impact of format changes.