What Calls to ARMs? International Evidence on Interest Rates and the Choice of Adjustable-Rate Mortgages
利用九国面板数据和工具变量方法，研究发现短期利率预期显著影响可调利率抵押贷款份额，而长期利率预期影响较弱，且当前固定与可调利率利差也起作用，表明家庭既关注当前成本也关注终身成本最小化。
The relative popularity of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) and fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) varies considerably both across countries and over time. We ask how movements in current and expected future interest rates affect the share of ARMs in total mortgage issuance. Using a nine-country panel and instrumental variables methods, we present evidence that near-term (one-year) rational forecasts of future movements in ARM rates do affect mortgage choice, particularly in more recent data since 2001. However, longer-term (three-year) rational forecasts of ARM rates have a relatively weak effect, and the current spread between FRM and ARM rates also matters, suggesting that households are concerned with current interest costs as well as with lifetime cost minimization. These conclusions are robust to alternative (adaptive and survey-based) models of household expectations. Data, the online appendix, and the institutional appendix are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2016.2629 . This paper was accepted by Amit Seru, finance.