The Heavy Costs of High Bail: Evidence from Judge Randomization
利用费城和匹兹堡随机分配保释法官的差异，研究发现设定金钱保释会使被告定罪概率增加12%，再犯率增加6-9%，揭示了信用约束对被告结果的影响及美国保释制度的公平性问题。
In the United States, roughly 450,000 people are detained awaiting trial on any given day, typically because they have not posted bail. Using a large sample of criminal cases in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, we analyze the consequences of the money bail system by exploiting the variation in bail-setting tendencies among randomly assigned bail judges. Our estimates suggest that the assignment of money bail leads to a 12 percent increase in the likelihood of conviction and a 6–9 percent increase in recidivism. Our results highlight the importance of credit constraints in shaping defendant outcomes and point to important fairness considerations in the institutional design of the American money bail system.