Global Warming, Irreversibility and Learning
指出,关于不可逆性效应的文献认为,当未来可能获得全球变暖损害信息时,当前减排应更多。但作者证明,最简单的全球变暖模型也不满足Epstein的充分条件,因此无法用其分析判断不可逆性效应是否适用,并推导了替代的充分条件。
A number of economists have argued that the literature on the irreversibility effect implies that current abatement of greenhouse gas emissions should be greater when there is the possibility of obtaining better information in the future about the potential damages from global warming than when there is no possibility of obtaining better information. In this paper we show that even the simplest model of global warming does not satisfy either of Epstein's (1980) sufficient conditions, so it is not possible to use Epstein's analysis to tell whether the irreversibility effect applies to models of global warming. We derive an alternative sufficient condition for the irreversibility effect to hold.