Fiscal Deficits, Bank Credit Risk, and Loan-Loss Provisions
研究发现财政赤字恶化会加剧银行财务困境，导致贷款损失准备金增加，且对准备金不足敏感的银行影响更显著，这对金融稳定有重要启示。
Abstract Fiscal deficits represent an important variable for banks’ aggregate credit risk, revealing governments’ ability to curb banks’ losses in bad states, either with direct cash infusions or with macroeconomic stabilization policies. Deteriorating deficits are associated with increasing financial distress of the banking sector and higher levels of loan-loss provisions. The effect is more pronounced for banks with a strong aversion to underprovisioning and is robust to a battery of tests and to the identification of fiscal shocks using military-spending data. This association represents an additional source of negative comovement between provisions and economic conditions, with implications for financial stability.