Child-Related Transfers, Household Labour Supply, and Welfare
构建生命周期模型，评估美国面向有孩家庭的转移支付政策（如育儿补贴、儿童税收抵免）对女性劳动供给和福利的影响，发现条件性转移支付能显著提升低技能已婚女性的劳动参与率，并带来更大福利改善。
Abstract What are the macroeconomic effects of transfers to households with children? How do alternative policies fare in welfare terms? We answer these questions in an equilibrium life-cycle model with household labour supply decisions, skill losses of females associated to non-participation, and heterogeneity in terms of fertility, childcare expenditures, and access to informal care. Calibrating our model to the U.S. economy, we first provide a roadmap for policy evaluation by contrasting transfers that are conditional on market work (childcare subsidies and childcare credits) with those that are not (child credits), when both types can be means tested or universal. We then evaluate expansions of current arrangements for the U.S. and find that expansions of conditional transfers have substantial positive effects on female labour supply, that are largest at the bottom of the skill distribution. Expanding childcare credits leads to long-run increases in the participation of married females of 10.6%, while an equivalent expansion of child credits leads to the opposite ($-$2.4%). Expanding existing programs generates substantial welfare gains for newborn households, which are largest for less-skilled households. Expanding childcare credits leads to the largest welfare gains for newborns and achieves majority support.