The Effects of Mandatory Seat Belt Laws on Driving Behavior and Traffic Fatalities
利用美国各辖区的面板数据，分析强制系安全带法如何通过影响安全带使用来改变交通事故死亡率，发现安全带使用降低了死亡率但效果小于官方估计，且不支持补偿性行为理论。
This paper investigates the effects of mandatory seat belt laws on driver behavior and traffic fatalities. Using a unique panel data set on seat belt usage in all U.S. jurisdictions, we analyze how such laws, by influencing seat belt use, affect the incidence of traffic fatalities. Allowing for the endogeneity of seat belt usage, we find that such usage decreases overall traffic fatalities. The magnitude of this effect, however, is significantly smaller than the estimate used by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. In addition, we do not find significant support for the compensating-behavior theory, which suggests that seat belt use also has an indirect adverse effect on fatalities by encouraging careless driving. Finally, we identify factors, especially the type of enforcement used, that make seat belt laws more effective in increasing seat belt usage. © 2003 President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.