International Inflation Spillovers through Input Linkages
研究发现国际投入产出关联显著同步了各国的生产者价格通胀,通过全球投入产出网络传播的成本冲击解释了PPI通胀全球成分的一半。
We document that international input-output linkages contribute substantially to synchronizing producer price inflation (PPI) across countries. Using a multicountry, industry-level data set that combines information on PPI and exchange rates with global input-output linkages, we recover the underlying cost shocks that are propagated internationally via the global input-output network, thus generating the observed dynamics of PPI. We then compare the extent to which common global factors account for the variation in actual PPI and in the underlying cost shocks. Across a range of econometric tests, input-output linkages account for half of the global component of PPI inflation.