Predicting market returns using aggregate implied cost of capital
研究发现总隐含资本成本（ICC）能有效预测未来1个月至4年的超额市场回报，其预测能力优于常用估值比率和商业周期变量，且对规模和账面市值比组合的回报也有预测力。
Theoretically, the implied cost of capital (ICC) is a good proxy for time-varying expected returns. We find that aggregate ICC strongly predicts future excess market returns at horizons ranging from one month to four years. This predictive power persists even in the presence of popular valuation ratios and business cycle variables, both in-sample and out-of-sample, and is robust to alternative implementations. We also find that ICCs of size and book-to-market portfolios predict corresponding portfolio returns.