The Long-Run Effects of Oil Wealth on Development: Evidence from Petroleum Geology
利用沉积盆地空间差异作为工具变量，估计石油财富对发展的长期影响，发现石油生产阻碍民主和财政能力、增加腐败，但提高人均GDP，不显著损害非资源部门。
Abstract We estimate the long-run effects of oil wealth on development by exploiting spatial variation in sedimentary basins—areas where petroleum can potentially form. Instrumental variables estimates indicate that oil production impedes democracy and fiscal capacity development, increases corruption, and raises GDP per capita without significantly harming the non-resource sectors of the economy. We find no evidence that oil production increases internal armed conflict, coup attempts, or political purges. In several specifications failure to account for endogeneity leads to substantial underestimation of the adverse effects of oil, suggesting that countries with higher-quality political institutions and greater fiscal capacity disproportionately select into oil production.