Clinical macroeconomics and differential diagnosis
指出主流宏观经济学过度强调总需求冲击,忽视了对危机根源的系统性鉴别诊断,提出通过鉴别诊断不同冲击来源(如需求、供给、恐慌等)来提升系统韧性和政策应对。
Abstract The 2008 financial crisis laid bare several deficiencies of mainstream macroeconomic analysis, most importantly the failure to engage in systematic differential diagnosis. Mainstream macroeconomics, following Keynes, has unduly privileged aggregate demand shocks in both analysis and policy prescription, whereas actual macroeconomic crises emerge from a much more diverse set of causes: demand, supply, panic, coordination failures, and, of course, even pandemic disease. The systematic application of differential diagnosis of underlying sources of shocks would improve system resilience and policy responses.