Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market
利用1957-1994年年度数据建立计量模型，分析英国房价波动，发现1980年代抵押贷款市场金融自由化显著改变了房价行为，并考虑了预期、人口、租赁部门溢出效应等因素。
The often volatile behaviour of UK house prices between 1957 and 1994 is analysed in an annual econometric model. Theory suggests that financial liberalisation of mortgage markets in the 1980s should have led to notable shifts in house price behaviour. The evidence supports the predictions of theory, suggesting shifts took place in wealth effects, as in the consumption function, and that real interest rates and income expectations became more important. The presence of transactions costs suggests important nonlinearities in house price dynamics. The paper also contains an explicit econometric treatment of expectations, demography, supply spillovers from the rented sector and of composition biases in the official house price index.