Evaluating the Macroeconomic Effects of the ECB's Unconventional Monetary Policies
使用包含影子利率的动态随机一般均衡模型，量化欧洲央行非常规货币政策的效果。反事实分析表明，若无这些措施，欧元区自大衰退以来产出将大幅下降，并在2015年中至2017年初经历通缩。
Abstract We quantify the macroeconomic effects of the European Central Bank's unconventional monetary policies using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which includes a set of shadow interest rates. Extracted from the yield curve, these shadow rates provide unconstrained measures of the overall stance of monetary policy. Counterfactual analyses show that, without unconventional measures, the euro area would have suffered (i) a substantial loss of output since the Great Recession and (ii) a period of deflation from mid‐2015 to early 2017. Specifically, year‐on‐year inflation and GDP growth would have been on average about 0.61% and 1.09% below their actual levels over the period 2014Q1–17Q2, respectively.