Losing Credibility: The Stabilization Blues
构建了一个政治经济学模型，解释以汇率为基础的稳定计划中可信度随时间先升后降的模式，强调通胀惯性和预算谈判成本的作用。
In exchange rate‐based stabilization programs, credibility often follows a distinct time pattern. At first it rises as the highly visible nominal anchor provides a sense of stability and hopes run high for a permanent solution to fiscal problems. Later, as the domestic currency appreciates in real terms and the fiscal problems are not fully resolved, the credibility of the program falls, sometimes precipitously. This paper develops a political‐economy model that focuses on the evolution of credibility over time, and is consistent with the pattern just described. Inflation inertia and costly budget negotiations play a key role.