Dynamic Asymmetries in U.S. Unemployment
用非线性时间序列模型和贝叶斯方法研究美国失业率的动态非对称性，发现失业率上升比下降更剧烈，且下降更缓慢。
We examine dynamic asymmetries in U.S unemployment using nonlinear time series models and Bayesian methods.We ae n d strong statistical evidence in favor of a two-regime threshold autoregressive m o d e l .Empirical results indicate that, once we t a k e i n to account both parameter and model uncertainty, there are economically interesting asymmetries in the unemployment r a t e .One aending of particular interest is that shocks which l o wer the unemployment rate tend to have a smaller eaeect than shocks which raise the unemployment r a t e .This aending is consistent with unemployment r i s e s being sudden and falls gradual.