An Equilibrium Model of “Global Imbalances” and Low Interest Rates
构建一个均衡模型,解释美国经常账户赤字持续上升、长期实际利率下降以及全球投资组合中美国资产增加等现象,认为根源在于不同地区从实体投资中生成金融资产的能力差异。
The sustained rise in US current account deficits, the stubborn decline in long-run real rates, and the rise in US assets in global portfolios appear as anomalies from the perspective of conventional models. This paper rationalizes these facts as an equilibrium outcome when different regions of the world differ in their capacity to generate financial assets from real investments. Extensions of the basic model generate exchange rate and foreign direct investment excess returns broadly consistent with the recent trends in these variables. The framework is flexible enough to shed light on a range of scenarios in a global equilibrium environment.