The Reaction of Consumer Spending and Debt to Tax Rebates—Evidence from Consumer Credit Data
利用信用卡账户面板数据，分析消费者对2001年联邦所得税退税的反应，发现消费者起初用退税偿还债务，随后增加支出，且流动性受限的消费者支出增加最多。
We use a new panel data set of credit card accounts to analyze how consumers responded to the 2001 federal income tax rebates. We estimate the monthly response of credit card payments, spending, and debt, exploiting the unique, randomized timing of the rebate disbursement. We find that, on average, consumers initially saved some of the rebate, by increasing their credit card payments and thereby paying down debt. But soon afterward their spending increased, counter to the permanent income model. Spending rose most for consumers who were initially most likely to be liquidity constrained, whereas debt declined most (so saving rose most) for unconstrained consumers. (c) 2007 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved.