Tracing the Woes: An Empirical Analysis of the Airline Industry
构建了美国航空业的结构模型，估计了2000年代初需求与供给变化对盈利能力的影响，发现需求价格弹性增加、乘客偏好直飞航班以及低成本航空扩张解释了传统航空公司可变利润下降的80%以上。
The US airline industry went through tremendous turmoil in the early 2000s, with four major bankruptcies, two major mergers, and various changes in network structure. This paper presents a structural model of the industry, and estimates the impact of demand and supply changes on profitability. Compared with 1999, we find that, in 2006, air-travel demand was 8 percent more price sensitive, passengers displayed a stronger preference for nonstop flights, and changes in marginal cost significantly favored nonstop flights. Together with the expansion of low-cost carriers, they explain more than 80 percent of legacy carriers' variable profit reduction.