直到痛苦的尽头:动态情境下的前景理论

Until the Bitter End: On Prospect Theory in a Dynamic Context

American Economic Review · 2015
被引 105
人大 A+FT50ABS 4*

中文导读

研究了在动态情境下,对概率权重导致的时间不一致性缺乏认知的前景理论决策者,发现若市场提供足够丰富的投资策略,投资者会因强烈的偏态偏好而无限期推迟交易,导致不现实的预测。

Abstract

We provide a result on prospect theory decision makers who are naïve about the time inconsistency induced by probability weighting. If a market offers a sufficiently rich set of investment strategies, investors postpone their trading decisions indefinitely due to a strong preference for skewness. We conclude that probability weighting in combination with naïveté leads to unrealistic predictions for a wide range of dynamic setups.

前景理论概率权重时间不一致动态投资决策