Social Transmission Bias and Investor Behavior
提出一个社会传播模型,投资者讨论策略并以随收益递增的概率说服他人,发现主动策略(如高方差、高偏度)因传播优势而流行,即使投资者并无内在偏好。
Abstract We offer a new social approach to investment decision making and asset prices. Investors discuss their strategies and convert others to their strategies with a probability that increases in investment returns. The conversion rate is shown to be convex in realized returns. Unconditionally, active strategies (e.g., high variance and skewness) dominate, although investors have no inherent preference for these characteristics. The model has strong predictions for how the adoption of active strategies depends on investors’ social networks. In contrast with nonsocial approaches, sociability, self-enhancing transmission, and other features of the communication process determine the popularity and pricing of active investment strategies.