Uncertainty, Investor Sentiment, and Innovation
基于奈特不确定性，提出创新浪潮、投资者情绪与并购活动的理论，解释投资者在多个不确定项目中同时投资时更乐观，以及创新浪潮伴随高估值和热IPO市场的现象。
Abstract We develop a theory of innovation waves, investor sentiment, and merger activity based on Knightian uncertainty. Uncertainty-averse investors are more optimistic on an innovation when they can make contemporaneous investments in multiple uncertain projects. Innovation waves occur when there is a critical mass of innovative companies, and are characterized by stronger investor sentiment, higher equity valuation, and hot initial public offering markets. Our approach to investor sentiment is not based on erroneous beliefs disjoint from economic fundamentals, but depends on uncertainty on the fundamentals. Our model can explain sector-specific booms uncorrelated with aggregate economic activity and the overall stock market.