Boom and Bust Patterns in the Adoption of Financial Innovations
构建了一个动态模型，研究企业在不确定价值下是否采纳金融创新，发现被批评为非理性过度的繁荣与萧条特征实际上符合完全理性行为，且金融中介有激励鼓励采纳，社会福利因此提升。
We develop a dynamic model of the adoption of financial innovations. Each period, firms decide whether or not to adopt an innovation of uncertain value, and the profitability of each period's adoptions reveals information about the innovation's value. We show that characteristics of financial innovation waves cited by critics as evidence of irrational excess are, in fact, consistent with fully rational behavior. We also show that social welfare is enhanced when more firms adopt innovations of questionable value and that financial intermediaries have an incentive to encourage such adoption.