Why Do Sellers Hold Out in the Housing Market? An Option‐Based Explanation
构建了一个模型，将房主在房价下跌时不愿出售的行为归因于房屋所有权附带的看涨期权，即等待未来市场好转可能带来更高收益。研究发现，交易量随租金增长率上升而增加，随租金波动率上升而减少，且在供给弹性低的地区和市场低迷时期效应更显著。
In the residential housing market, home owners are reluctant to sell in a declining market. We build a model which focuses on the embedded call option associated with home ownership that allows owners to delay the (irreversible) sale. When prices are low, the (opportunity) cost of a sale, i.e., a higher implied gain from a future sale, likely exceeds its immediate trade benefit and an owner is better off waiting for market conditions to improve. The model also highlights the importance of supply conditions: a more constrained supply is associated with a longer delay. Using state‐level residential housing data, we find evidence consistent with the model. Transaction volume is increasing (decreasing) in the rental growth rate (volatility) in the cross section; their effects are amplified in areas with low supply elasticities, and in times with low market prices. Overall, this paper provides a rational explanation for delayed trading decisions in the housing market.