Technology, demand, and productivity: What an industry model tells us about business cycles
本文构建了一个包含行业投入产出网络的新凯恩斯DSGE模型，利用美国1960-2005年行业数据估计发现，总技术冲击方差为零，总波动主要由总需求冲击解释，且1980年代中期后生产率周期性的下降约一半可由需求冲击重要性减弱解释。
In this paper, we study the relative importance of demand and technology shocks in generating business cycle fluctuations, both at the aggregate level and at the level of individual industries. We construct a New Keynesian DSGE model that is highly disaggregated at the industry level with an input-output network structure. Measured productivity in the model fluctuates in response to both technology and demand shocks due to endogenous factor utilization. We estimate the model by the simulated method of moments using U.S. industry data from 1960 to 2005. We find that the aggregate technology shock has zero variance. Exogenous shocks to technology are necessary for our model to fit the data, but these shocks are exclusively industry-specific, uncorrelated across industries. The bulk of the aggregate fluctuations, including those in aggregate measured productivity, are explained through shocks to aggregate demand. This shock structure is supported by a host of information from the disaggregate data. Our second finding is that about half of the decrease in the cyclicality of measured productivity in the U.S. after the mid-1980s can be explained by the reduction in the importance of demand shocks, in line with the narrative of the great moderation.