Searching for Google's Value: Using Prediction Markets to Forecast Market Capitalization Prior to an Initial Public Offering
在谷歌IPO前用预测市场预测其市值，结果比拍卖定价更接近首日收盘市值，表明预测市场可为IPO定价提供有用信息。
We conducted prediction markets designed to forecast post-initial public offering (IPO) valuations before a particularly unique IPO: Google. The prediction markets forecast Google's post-IPO market capitalization relatively accurately. While Google's auction-based IPO price was 15.3% below the first-day closing market capitalization, the final prediction market forecast was only 4.0% above it. The forecast also accorded with the level of over-subscription in the IPO auction. Evidence available to both outsiders (from the prediction market forecasts) and insiders (through the orders in Google's auction) predicted similar degrees of underpricing. We argue that, with repetition, such markets could provide useful information for understanding the IPO process.