The Long-Run Consumption Effects of Earnings Shocks
利用收入动态面板研究，发现失业和残疾等永久性收入冲击对消费的影响小于对收入的影响，且家庭会在失业前提前减少消费，说明仅关注收入会高估冲击对福利的损害。
Although prior studies of job displacement and disability have measured the impact of these shocks in terms of lost earnings, no previous research has linked these permanent earnings shocks to the long-run consumption smoothing behavior of these households. Because consumption is generally considered a better measure of well-being than is income, understanding the link between these earnings shocks and consumption is important in trying to gauge the magnitude of the long-run impact caused by such events. Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, the analysis finds the percentage change in consumption is generally less than that of the head's earnings and total family income, especially at the time of the shock. The results also indicate that displaced households respond to an increase in the probability of future job losses by reducing their consumption prior to a job loss. These results suggest that only focusing on earnings overestimates the impact of these shocks on household wellbeing. 2000 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology