Leaning Against the Wind: Debt Financing in the Face of Adversity
研究发现，当盈利前景不佳时，管理者倾向于更多依赖债务融资，称为“逆风而行”，并初步支持“做数字”假说，即分析师过度乐观预期和实际机会恶化带来的压力促使管理者通过债务融资提升每股收益和净资产收益率。
Abstract We offer evidence of a new stylized feature of corporate financing decisions: the tendency of managers to rely more on debt financing when earnings prospects are poor. We term this “leaning against the wind” and consider three possible explanations: market timing, precautionary financing, and “making the numbers.” We find no evidence in favor of the first two hypotheses, and provisionally accept the making the numbers hypothesis that managers who are under pressure due to unrealistically optimistic earnings expectations by analysts and deteriorating real opportunities will rely more heavily on debt financing to boost earnings per share and return on equity.