Public Saving and Policy Coordination in Aging Economies
研究了发达国家在人口老龄化背景下，若维持现有公共债务水平不削减，将导致福利大幅下降，并引发资本从欧洲和日本流向美国，加剧部分国家的转型困难。
Abstract In the coming decades, the share of people of working age will fall significantly in most developed countries. According to optimal taxation theory, public debts should be reduced before the baby‐boom generation retires. I find that if debts are instead maintained at current levels, welfare may be reduced substantially in countries with a large public sector and/or a large demographic change. Since population aging will be less dramatic in the United States than in Europe and Japan, capital will move from Europe and Japan to the United States. These capital movements will facilitate the US demographic transition but aggravate the transition in most European countries.