The effects of institutional and technological change and business cycle fluctuations on seasonal patterns in quarterly industrial production series
研究了G7国家季度工业生产数据中，制度与技术变革和商业周期波动对季节性模式变化的相对重要性，发现前者影响远大于后者。
Changes in the seasonal patterns of macroeconomic time series may be due to the effects of business cycle fluctuations or to technological and institutional change or both. We examine the relative importance of these two sources of change in seasonality for quarterly industrial production series of the G7 countries using time‐varying smooth transition autoregressive models. We find compelling evidence that the effects of gradual institutional and technological change are much more important than the effects attributable to the business cycle.