Uncertainty, Hiring, and Subsequent Performance: The NFL Draft
分析不确定性如何影响招聘过程，结合统计歧视和期权价值模型，以NFL选秀为例，发现不确定性对群体招聘和后续表现有不同影响。
In this article, we analyze the impact of uncertainty on the hiring process. We show the connection between models of statistical discrimination where uncertainty can work against groups that have less reliable indicators of future productivity and models of option value where uncertainty about future productivity can be beneficial for these groups. These models generate hypotheses about the relationship between ex ante hiring patterns and ex post productivity. This is applied to the market for NFL football players. We provide various estimates of NFL success, which suggest that statistical discrimination and option value influence choices in this market.