The Stock Market's Reaction to Unemployment News: Why Bad News Is Usually Good for Stocks
研究发现，经济扩张期失业率上升对股市是利好，经济收缩期则是利空，因为失业新闻同时传递了利率、风险溢价和公司盈利三种信息，其主导作用随经济状态变化。
ABSTRACT We find that on average, an announcement of rising unemployment is good news for stocks during economic expansions and bad news during economic contractions. Unemployment news bundles three types of primitive information relevant for valuing stocks: information about future interest rates, the equity risk premium, and corporate earnings and dividends. The nature of the information bundle, and hence the relative importance of the three effects, changes over time depending on the state of the economy. For stocks as a group, information about interest rates dominates during expansions and information about future corporate dividends dominates during contractions.